What would be really interesting is if the commentariat would just get honest about this and say something like, “Look, America, obviously Biden isn’t all there anymore. But that’s really not all that important. What we need to focus on is the administrative appointments his handlers put in front of him to approve, because those are the people who really make things happen.” That could open up a real and long-overdue public debate about the nature of the administrative state.
Before this week, I don’t think I had watched a presidential debate in its entirety in twenty years. Last night’s debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump reminded me why.
I reluctantly agreed to watch the debate because an alumnus of the Ph.D. program I direct asked me to be part of livestreamed commentary about it along with several other scholars. (You’ll be able to see the archived video of our discussion on the Optimistic Curmudgeon’s YouTube channel when it is posted in the next day or two.) I watched the debate at home along with my wife and several of my kids. We do not have cable, but we were able to find CNN’s YouTube channel, where the debate was shown live.
Here are my main takeaways from the debate:
CNN’s moderators get a B: Given the historically low trust the public currently has for journalists, the network obviously made a serious effort to avoid the appearance of partisanship. For the most part, they succeeded. The rules of the debate were set up to favor Biden, but Trump had agreed to them, and moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash mostly stuck to them. They asked both candidates tough questions and attempted multiple times to steer them back to the question when they didn’t give straight answers. I did notice that they gave Biden more opportunities to rebut Trump than vice versa, but it didn’t seem egregious. They also cut Biden off more than once when he started rambling, although I don’t know whether that was an attempt to stick to time allotments or to save him embarrassment.
Neither candidate understands inflation: Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. “More money chasing fewer goods” is the classic description. Neither candidate demonstrated an understanding of this basic principle in the debate. Trump accused Biden of causing inflation with reckless spending. Biden responded by saying the only reason inflation wasn’t already a problem when he took office in 2021 was because the economy “was flat on its back” thanks to Trump. Neither wanted to point to the obvious explanation for the inflation we’ve had in recent years: the enormous increase in the money supply resulting from the bipartisan policy of sending “COVID relief checks” to every American household beginning in 2020. In the public mind, this issue will work in Trump’s favor, though. Monthly mortgage payments as well as food and gas prices have all skyrocketed since early 2021, and blame for that will fall on Biden much more than it will on Trump.
Neither candidate is serious about the national debt: I don’t particularly blame them for this because there doesn’t seem to be an influential political constituency that insists on fiscal responsibility these days. But it was still a telling exchange. Trump waved away the debt question by blaming it on COVID—certainly part of the equation but not nearly all of it during his term—and didn’t offer any sort of proposal to bring down the deficit going forward. Biden served up a tax-the-rich idea he said would generate $500 billion over ten years, or an average of $50 billion per year. Meanwhile the Congressional Budget Office projects a $1.9 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2024 alone that grows to a $2.8 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2034.
Uniquely Trumpy things are priced in already: Trump seemed unruffled by the inevitable question about January 6 and deflected some of the responsibility for it to Nancy Pelosi, a tactic I did not see coming. Biden tried to hit Trump on this but failed to make a mark as far as I could tell. I don’t think anyone’s perceptions of the event will be altered by this exchange. As for Trump’s legal troubles, the former president dwelt on those much more than Biden or the moderators did. I think the phrase “convicted felon” was only used once (by Biden), and Trump repeatedly said Biden had weaponized the justice system against him.
Trump landed blows on immigration and foreign policy: Trump managed to turn several of his answers into an immigration talking point and said many scary things about what illegal immigrants are doing in American right now. Tellingly, Biden did not attempt to say that the currently large flow of immigrants is good for the country; that seems politically suicidal given public opinion. His response was that Trump sabotaged a bipartisan border deal, but Trump effectively parried by pointing out the president already has executive authority to close or bottleneck the border; no new legislation is needed. On foreign policy, Biden gave some of his better responses to questions, but Trump seemed to fluster him by hammering the point about the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and saying it invited the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I was surprised by Trump’s bold prediction that he would have the Ukraine war settled between his election and inauguration. That’s the kind of rhetoric that Ronald Reagan used effectively against Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Biden had the edge on the environment: The use of the phrase “climate crisis” by the moderators might have made this the most loaded question of the debate, and I think it did work to Biden’s advantage. Trump went off point and then mentioned clean air and water when the moderator steered him back to the question. Biden hit him pretty effectively on this given the slanted nature of the question, but without scoring a knockout. Trump might have salvaged the exchange by turning the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement into a foreign policy issue rather than an environmental issue. The bad news for Biden, though, is that environmental issues simply are not very high on voters’ lists of priorities right now according to survey data.
Biden’s physical condition is bad news for Democrats: All policy questions aside, this is the crisis-level issue for Democrats. The post-debate commentary immediately revealed that the party is in panic mode after seeing Biden lose his train of thought multiple times and project an image of frailty. Tellingly, Biden wandered immediately off topic when asked about his age and the concerns it raises in voters. Trump, by contrast, uncharacteristically confronted the question about his own age head on and seemed much more vigorous. Already there are calls for Biden to withdraw from the race so that the Democrats can find a replacement for him on the ballot. Pursuing this strategy would be a real problem, though. Party operatives can’t force Biden out if he doesn’t want to withdraw, and the convention delegates are bound to him. An attempt to change the convention rules to oust him would probably be seen as a coup and cause a public relations disaster. But even if they do persuade Biden to withdraw, it’s not clear who would replace him, and that contest could cause a civil war in the party. The left flank would revolt if the unpopular vice-president (but woman of color) Kamala Harris were to be passed over for someone like California governor (and white man) Gavin Newsom, who would be more likely to win against Trump in the general election. The identity-politics conflict within the party has been brewing for years, and Biden has been the figurehead keeping a lid on it. On a more institutional level, everyone knows Biden isn’t really in charge. His handlers run things, and there’s a well-developed patronage network that has been built up around him. Those operatives don’t want to give up their power and influence and will probably urge Biden to stay in the race. What would be really interesting is if the commentariat would just get honest about this and say something like, “Look, America, obviously Biden isn’t all there anymore. But that’s really not all that important. What we need to focus on is the administrative appointments his handlers put in front of him to approve, because those are the people who really make things happen.” That could open up a real and long-overdue public debate about the nature of the administrative state.
Bottom line: Son #5 (12) more or less accurately summed up much of the debate when he said, “Daddy, they’re just taking turns saying, ‘You’re a liar and the worst president ever’ to each other.” Nevertheless, Trump won the debate. His performance was not great, but it was better than Biden’s. The current president failed to show that he is physically up to the task of competently filling that office for another full term. When Trump says, as he surely will from now on, that a vote for Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris, voters will have to take him seriously.
I normally restrict comments on posts to paid subscribers, but I’m going to make an exception here. I welcome your civil and thoughtful comments about the debate below. Did your perception of the event line up with mine, or did you see it differently? What do you think are the main challenges for these candidates going forward?
Excellent analysis.
Good analysis Jason. After this, my wife and I are back to wondering if the Democratic Convention in Chicago will be the least bit interesting and controversial after the fading student anti-war uprisings or simply a rubber stamp of the status quo to keep the gravy flowing for the Administrative State. David Hathaway